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Maple Leafs vs. Kraken

● quote 12s ago
Sports→HockeyCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $319.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $188.4KEvent: Maple Leafs vs. Kraken

Indicative prices · 12s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

54.5¢
Maple Leafs
45.5¢
Kraken
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$83.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kraken · $14.4K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$20.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKraken$17.6K@ 45¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$19.2K
tracked
$83.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: Kraken · $14.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs".

•If the Kraken win, the market will resolve to "Kraken".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 28 at 10:00PM ET: If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the Kraken win, the market will resolve to "Kraken". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $38.4K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $8.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Kraken@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Maple Leafs@ 56.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maple Leafs; negative values favor Kraken. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMaple Leafs · $5
6hKraken · $19.2K
24hMaple Leafs · $30.6K

Maple Leafs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maple Leafs price. Kraken fills are converted to the complementary Maple Leafs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h53.78¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d53.78¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maple Leafs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$39.3K
50¢
← now
$43.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKraken$17.6K@ 45.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Kraken (-1.5)
26.0¢$14.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
52.5¢$10.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5
—$25priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Maple Leafs (-3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooMaple Leafs$38.3K
BUY VWAP 52.51¢·14 fills
Kch-TempKraken$17.6K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.