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Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $302.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $491.2KEvent: Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
58.5¢
FC Barcelona
41.5¢
Galatasaray SK
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly54Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority41Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:59 trades$271.4K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FC Barcelona · $4.0K net·4 wallets·$16.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFC Barcelona$69.3K@ 60¢·0x361b…74fe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Galatasaray SK pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.9K
6h
+$221.7K
tracked
$271.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: FC Barcelona · $4.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 41

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Galatasaray SK or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Galatasaray SK".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 13 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Galatasaray SK". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
welcometowinnercircle2 linked markets · $76.9K gross
0x4247…91c44 linked markets · $14.4K gross
Flaznorp7 linked markets · $14.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY FC Barcelona@ 59.0¢36m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY FC Barcelona@ 59.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY FC Barcelona@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY FC Barcelona@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Barcelona; negative values favor Galatasaray SK. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGalatasaray SK · $1.9K
6hFC Barcelona · $221.7K
24hFC Barcelona · $221.3K

FC Barcelona price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Barcelona price. Galatasaray SK fills are converted to the complementary FC Barcelona probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h58.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d58.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Barcelona price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$5.9K
55¢
← now
$267.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFC Barcelona$69.3K@ 59.9¢0x361b…74fe🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFC Barcelona$23.7K@ 59.0¢0x361b…74fe🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFC Barcelona$12.6K@ 59.0¢0x361b…74fe🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFC Barcelona$54.9K@ 58.9¢0x361b…74fe🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFC Barcelona$14.8K@ 57.0¢0x361b…74fe🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5)
1.1¢$65.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: Galatasaray SK O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona 2nd Half O/U 1.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 2.5
30.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-4.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5
44.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 3.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x361b…74feFC Barcelona$218.8K
BUY VWAP 58.8¢·13 fills
gransaaaGalatasaray SK$13.5K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesFC Barcelona$10.3K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.