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Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)

● quote 10s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $1.7MOfficial 24h Vol: $351.2KEvent: Texans vs. Jaguars
50.5¢
Jaguars
49.5¢
Texans
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly49Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority35Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%
24h sample:13 trades$178.3K tracked31% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJaguars$54.9K@ 52¢·Pwaddler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Texans pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
+$167.5K
tracked
$178.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 35

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Texans or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Jaguars" if the Jaguars win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texans".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Texans and Jaguars, scheduled for October 18 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Jaguars" if the Jaguars win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texans". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $9.6K gross
UpTheBlues4 linked markets · $1.4K gross
0x3e1a…4d5c2 linked markets · $23 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jaguars@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Jaguars@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jaguars@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jaguars; negative values favor Texans. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTexans · $2.6K
6hJaguars · $167.5K
24hJaguars · $162.1K

Jaguars price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jaguars price. Texans fills are converted to the complementary Jaguars probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h51.9¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d51.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jaguars price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$178.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJaguars$16.5K@ 52.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJaguars$54.9K@ 52.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJaguars$34.5K@ 52.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJaguars$49.3K@ 52.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Texans (-3.5)
27.5¢$60.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Texans (-7.5)
0.0¢$11.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Texans (-6.5)
0.0¢$7.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Texans vs. Jaguars
43.5¢$7.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)
54.5¢$668priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Texans (-2.5)
37.0¢$512priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Texans vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5
49.5¢$260priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Texans vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5
0.0¢$172priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb4f9…c9a7Jaguars$97.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·4 fills
PwaddlerJaguars$71.3K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.