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UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)

● quote 7 min ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: 3 minutesLiquidity: $524.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $605.1KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)
99.9¢
Brendan Allen
1.0¢
Christian Leroy Duncan
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:206 trades$175.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Brendan Allen · $7.9K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$50.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBrendan Allen$45.7K@ 51¢·gangmusic

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$40.5K
tracked
$175.8K

17 verified profitable wallets: Brendan Allen · $7.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +49.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 7 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 62 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Brendan Allen" if Brendan Allen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Leroy Duncan at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Christian Leroy Duncan" if Christian Leroy Duncan is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Brendan Allen" if Brendan Allen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Leroy Duncan at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Christian Leroy Duncan" if Christian Leroy Duncan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Brendan Allen2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Brendan Allen2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Brendan Allen@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +23.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Brendan Allen@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +21.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Christian Leroy Duncan DOWN 15.5pp · near-book depth $318 → $91 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Brendan Allen; negative values favor Christian Leroy Duncan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBrendan Allen · $0
6hBrendan Allen · $40.5K
24hBrendan Allen · $45.5K

Brendan Allen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Brendan Allen price. Christian Leroy Duncan fills are converted to the complementary Brendan Allen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h58.6¢▲ above by 41.3pp
VWAP 7d58.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Brendan Allen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$13.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$8.3K
80¢
$1.8K
75¢
$2.0K
70¢
$11.0K
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.4K
50¢
$127.0K
45¢
$4.0K
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$702
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBrendan Allen$15.4K@ 52.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBrendan Allen$45.7K@ 51.0¢
gangmusic0xb8d7…5ac7
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

gangmusicBrendan Allen$45.7K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
fkcvffcjtBrendan Allen$15.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Christian Leroy Duncan$13.3K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.