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San Diego 2: Timo Legout vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $64.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $362.5KEvent: San Diego 2: Timo Legout vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
58.5¢
Timo Legout
41.5¢
Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets9Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:202 trades$79.5K trackedsource coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 29s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Timo Legout · $1.9K net·12 wallets·$21.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIgor Ribeiro Marcondes$10.7K@ 42¢·Antblack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Timo Legout pressure: $3.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.8K
6h
+$8.4K
tracked
$79.5K

12 verified profitable wallets: Timo Legout · $1.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 43

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Timo Legout or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Timo Legout and Igor Ribeiro Marcondes in the San Diego 2, originally scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Timo Legout' if Timo Legout advances against Igor Ribeiro Marcondes. This market will resolve to 'Igor Ribeiro Marcondes' if Igor Ribeiro Marcondes advances against Timo Legout. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Timo Legout DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $10.0K → $1.1K · 25s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Timo Legout; negative values favor Igor Ribeiro Marcondes. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTimo Legout · $3.8K
6hTimo Legout · $8.4K
24hTimo Legout · $8.4K

Timo Legout price VWAP

Volume-weighted Timo Legout price. Igor Ribeiro Marcondes fills are converted to the complementary Timo Legout probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h66.8¢▼ below by 8.3pp
VWAP 7d66.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Timo Legout price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$636
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$13.3K
75¢
$14.4K
70¢
$3.4K
65¢
$6.9K
60¢
$2.9K
55¢
← now
$31.7K
50¢
$2.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$198
35¢
$2.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYIgor Ribeiro Marcondes$10.7K@ 42.4¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackIgor Ribeiro Marcondes$10.7K
BUY VWAP 42.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.