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Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $185.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $165.7KEvent: Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
32.0¢
Kalmychata
99.9¢
Team Lynx
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:196 trades$40.0K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Lynx · $71 net·11 wallets·$8.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Lynx$2.7K@ 100¢·chw7951

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Kalmychata pressure: $2.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.3K
6h
−$2.0K
tracked
$40.0K

11 verified profitable wallets: Team Lynx · $71 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kalmychata or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Kalmychata" if Kalmychata win Game 1 against Team Lynx.

•This market will resolve to "Team Lynx" if Team Lynx win Game 1 against Kalmychata.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Kalmychata and Team Lynx in the European Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Kalmychata" if Kalmychata win Game 1 against Team Lynx. This market will resolve to "Team Lynx" if Team Lynx win Game 1 against Kalmychata. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
nomoredream2 linked markets · $11.9K gross
0xbfab…f0672 linked markets · $5.7K gross
0xbed3…fbe22 linked markets · $4.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Team Lynx UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $87 → $87 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Kalmychata; negative values favor Team Lynx. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKalmychata · $2.3K
6hTeam Lynx · $2.0K
24hTeam Lynx · $2.0K

Kalmychata price VWAP

Volume-weighted Kalmychata price. Team Lynx fills are converted to the complementary Kalmychata probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.0¢
VWAP 24h35.3¢▼ below by 3.3pp
VWAP 7d35.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Kalmychata price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$586
65¢
$2.4K
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$19.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$171
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$222
5¢
$0
0¢
$15.6K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.