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Spread: Arizona State (-3.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: BaylorLiquidity: $24.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $113.5KEvent: Baylor vs. Arizona State
0.0¢
Arizona State payout
100.0¢
Baylor payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona State$21.6K@ 48¢·SDTrading

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Baylor. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-04 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arizona State" if Arizona State win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Baylor".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona State" if Arizona State win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Baylor". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona State@ 48.0¢13d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arizona State; negative values favor Baylor. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBaylor · $64
6hBaylor · $3.4K
24hArizona State · $13.8K

Arizona State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arizona State price. Baylor fills are converted to the complementary Arizona State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h47.9¢▼ below by 47.9pp
VWAP 7d47.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arizona State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$52.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$64

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArizona State$21.6K@ 48.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—13 days ago
BUYBaylor$13.3K@ 52.0¢
justwins0xa2cc…0cbc
🐋—13 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.