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Spread: North Dakota State (-17.5)

Sports→Settlement: North Dakota StateLiquidity: $80.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $154.1KEvent: Wyoming vs. North Dakota State
100.0¢
North Dakota State payout
0.0¢
Wyoming payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:North Dakota State · $53.7K net·3 wallets(2🐋)·$53.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNorth Dakota State$32.7K@ 48¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome North Dakota State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-03 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "North Dakota State" if North Dakota State win the game by 18 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wyoming".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "North Dakota State" if North Dakota State win the game by 18 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wyoming". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY North Dakota State@ 48.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY North Dakota State@ 49.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor North Dakota State; negative values favor Wyoming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNorth Dakota State · $0
6hNorth Dakota State · $62.8K
24hNorth Dakota State · $62.7K

North Dakota State price VWAP

Volume-weighted North Dakota State price. Wyoming fills are converted to the complementary North Dakota State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h47.9¢▲ above by 52.1pp
VWAP 7d47.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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North Dakota State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$4
80¢
$8
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$73.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNorth Dakota State$32.7K@ 48.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—3 days ago
BUYNorth Dakota State$21.1K@ 48.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNorth Dakota State$12.3K@ 48.0¢0x4924…3782🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563North Dakota State$32.7K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
ic4creamNorth Dakota State$21.1K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
0x4924…3782North Dakota State$12.3K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.