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Spread: Alabama (-5.5)

Sports→Settlement: AlabamaLiquidity: $466.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $694.6KEvent: Alabama vs. Mississippi State
100.0¢
Alabama payout
0.0¢
Mississippi State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alabama · $51.3K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$61.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlabama$44.0K@ 52¢·ethanaz

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alabama. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-03 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mississippi State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mississippi State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii3 linked markets · $192.7K gross
ethanaz2 linked markets · $94.6K gross
Painfulvoid2 linked markets · $38.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alabama3d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alabama3d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alabama@ 52.0¢3d ago
15m CONFIRMED +28.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Alabama@ 51.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alabama; negative values favor Mississippi State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlabama · $0
6hAlabama · $214.6K
24hAlabama · $216.4K

Alabama price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alabama price. Mississippi State fills are converted to the complementary Alabama probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h50.8¢▲ above by 49.2pp
VWAP 7d50.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alabama price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1
75¢
$222
70¢
$80
65¢
$0
60¢
$2
55¢
$0
50¢
$337.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlabama$44.0K@ 52.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—3 days ago
BUYMississippi State$13.9K@ 50.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—3 days ago
BUYAlabama$40.0K@ 52.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—3 days ago
BUYAlabama$17.0K@ 52.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—3 days ago
BUYAlabama$21.4K@ 50.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—3 days ago
BUYAlabama$17.6K@ 50.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—3 days ago
BUYAlabama$16.4K@ 50.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—3 days ago
BUYAlabama$16.4K@ 50.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—3 days ago
BUYMississippi State$25.2K@ 49.0¢0x4924…3782🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiiAlabama$151.6K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·22 fills
BrotherObamaAlabama$57.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
ethanazAlabama$44.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0x4924…3782Mississippi State$25.2K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
0xb4f9…c9a7Mississippi State$13.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
RN1Alabama$12.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·4 fills
betdgeAlabama$11.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.