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Spread: Fresno State (-12.5)

Sports→Settlement: Fresno StateLiquidity: $107.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $289.9KEvent: Rice vs. Fresno State
100.0¢
Fresno State payout
0.0¢
Rice payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFresno State$26.7K@ 51¢·texaskid

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Fresno State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-27 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game by 13 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rice".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game by 13 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rice". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Rice@ 52.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Fresno State@ 49.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -35.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Fresno State; negative values favor Rice. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFresno State · $1
6hRice · $44.1K
24hRice · $24.6K

Fresno State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Fresno State price. Rice fills are converted to the complementary Fresno State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h49.5¢▲ above by 50.5pp
VWAP 7d49.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Fresno State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$75.4K
45¢
$64.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRice$10.6K@ 52.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—10 days ago
BUYRice$10.3K@ 52.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—10 days ago
BUYRice$15.1K@ 51.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—10 days ago
BUYFresno State$26.7K@ 51.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—10 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.