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James Madison vs. Old Dominion

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 8 minutesLiquidity: $43.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $211.2KEvent: James Madison vs. Old Dominion
75.5¢
James Madison
24.5¢
Old Dominion
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection68Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$139.8K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 66%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:James Madison · $24.4K net·3 wallets·$24.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJames Madison$14.3K@ 69¢·Yellow-Fever

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

James Madison pressure: $94.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$94.7K
6h
+$139.8K
tracked
$139.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: James Madison · $24.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from James Madison or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "James Madison" if James Madison win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Old Dominion" if Old Dominion win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between James Madison and Old Dominion, scheduled for September 26 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "James Madison" if James Madison win the game. This market will resolve to "Old Dominion" if Old Dominion win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $23.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY James Madison@ 70.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY James Madison@ 70.0¢23m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor James Madison; negative values favor Old Dominion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJames Madison · $94.7K
6hJames Madison · $139.8K
24hJames Madison · $139.8K

James Madison price VWAP

Volume-weighted James Madison price. Old Dominion fills are converted to the complementary James Madison probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current75.5¢
VWAP 24h69.0¢▲ above by 6.5pp
VWAP 7d69.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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James Madison price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$2
65¢
$139.8K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJames Madison$10.2K@ 69.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYJames Madison$11.4K@ 69.0¢
chanello0xf3a6…71bd
🐋—42 minutes ago
BUYJames Madison$11.4K@ 69.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—42 minutes ago
BUYJames Madison$12.1K@ 69.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—42 minutes ago
BUYJames Madison$14.3K@ 69.0¢
Yellow-Fever0xda85…1ca7
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooJames Madison$42.3K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·7 fills
Yellow-FeverJames Madison$14.3K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardJames Madison$13.1K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·2 fills
chanelloJames Madison$11.4K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
PainfulvoidJames Madison$11.4K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.