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Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $86.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $70.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
34.5¢
MOUZ
65.5¢
Natus Vincere
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$24.4K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 19s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ$10.4K@ 35¢·vjnn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$990
6h
−$85
tracked
$24.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Natus Vincere · $10.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Round 1 match between MOUZ and Natus Vincere in the StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 18, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 18, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor MOUZ; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMOUZ · $990
6hNatus Vincere · $85
24hNatus Vincere · $85

MOUZ price VWAP

Volume-weighted MOUZ price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary MOUZ probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h35.1¢▼ below by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d35.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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MOUZ price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$24.4K
30¢
← now
$10
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMOUZ$10.4K@ 35.0¢
vjnn0x55a1…db28
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

vjnnMOUZ$12.2K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·2 fills
0x29b5…cc6cNatus Vincere$10.9K
BUY VWAP 64.8¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.