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Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva

● quote 33s ago
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $19.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $362.3KEvent: Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva
38.5¢
Xiaodi You
61.5¢
Alina Charaeva
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly78Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution76Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority37Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:142 trades$115.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Xiaodi You · $128 net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$51.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLXiaodi You$15.1K@ 64¢·Gambler661

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Xiaodi You pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.6K
6h
+$2.7K
tracked
$115.3K

14 verified profitable wallets: Xiaodi You · $128 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 37

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Xiaodi You or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Xiaodi You and Alina Charaeva in the Sao Paulo Open, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xiaodi You' if Xiaodi You advances against Alina Charaeva. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Xiaodi You. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Xiaodi You@ 78.0¢14h ago
15m INVALIDATED -42.0pp1h INVALIDATED -43.0pp6h INVALIDATED -42.0pp
Latest book event: Xiaodi You DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $25.2K → $178 · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Xiaodi You; negative values favor Alina Charaeva. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hXiaodi You · $2.6K
6hXiaodi You · $2.7K
24hXiaodi You · $10.5K

Xiaodi You price VWAP

Volume-weighted Xiaodi You price. Alina Charaeva fills are converted to the complementary Xiaodi You probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h50.1¢▼ below by 11.6pp
VWAP 7d49.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Xiaodi You price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$96
75¢
$7.0K
70¢
$2.0K
65¢
$10.3K
60¢
$16.5K
55¢
$15.6K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$13.6K
40¢
$3.6K
35¢
← now
$31.4K
30¢
$10.1K
25¢
$3.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLXiaodi You$15.1K@ 63.9¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYAlina Charaeva$11.0K@ 54.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYXiaodi You$13.5K@ 57.0¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 15 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Gambler661Xiaodi You$13.5K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooAlina Charaeva$11.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.