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Valencia: Francesca Curmi vs Veronika Erjavec

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $197.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $132.9KEvent: Valencia: Francesca Curmi vs Veronika Erjavec
99.9¢
Francesca Curmi
1.0¢
Veronika Erjavec
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets31Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$30.3K trackedsource coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesca Curmi · $4.8K net·6 wallets·$15.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVeronika Erjavec$4.5K@ 51¢·0xe911…3d4e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Francesca Curmi pressure: $5.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.4K
6h
−$1.8K
tracked
$30.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: Francesca Curmi · $4.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Francesca Curmi or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesca Curmi and Veronika Erjavec in the Valencia, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Curmi' if Francesca Curmi advances against Veronika Erjavec. This market will resolve to 'Veronika Erjavec' if Veronika Erjavec advances against Francesca Curmi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Veronika Erjavec DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $9.0K → $3.5K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesca Curmi; negative values favor Veronika Erjavec. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesca Curmi · $5.4K
6hVeronika Erjavec · $1.8K
24hVeronika Erjavec · $1.8K

Francesca Curmi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesca Curmi price. Veronika Erjavec fills are converted to the complementary Francesca Curmi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h55.6¢▲ above by 44.3pp
VWAP 7d55.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesca Curmi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.8K
90¢
$4.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$25
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$3
50¢
$0
45¢
$10.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$3.8K
30¢
$6.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.