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LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $83.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $581.2KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
2.5¢
Natus Vincere
97.5¢
Movistar KOI
0.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 25 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:194 trades$208.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 52s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Movistar KOI · $36.5K net·25 wallets(1🐋)·$72.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$16.9K@ 40¢·Diabolical-Prize

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Movistar KOI pressure: $53.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$53.8K
6h
−$55.4K
tracked
$208.5K

25 verified profitable wallets: Movistar KOI · $36.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Movistar KOI or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 21:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 3 against Movistar KOI.

•This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 3 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Natus Vincere and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 3 against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 3 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
bloodmaster4 linked markets · $91.9K gross
fantasy77882 linked markets · $86.2K gross
BrotherObama3 linked markets · $64.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Movistar KOI DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.0K → $703 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Movistar KOI. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMovistar KOI · $53.8K
6hMovistar KOI · $55.4K
24hMovistar KOI · $59.5K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Movistar KOI fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.5¢
VWAP 24h34.3¢▼ below by 31.9pp
VWAP 7d34.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.4K
45¢
$20.2K
40¢
$89.1K
35¢
$48.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$13.6K
20¢
$0
15¢
$3.5K
10¢
$2.4K
5¢
$14.4K
0¢
← now
$14.4K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$16.9K@ 40.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYMovistar KOI$11.0K@ 62.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—39 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
16.5¢$985.3Kpriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$954.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$814.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
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Games Total: O/U 4.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Diabolical-PrizeNatus Vincere$16.9K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
BrotherObamaMovistar KOI$11.0K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.