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Guadalajara Open Akron, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar

● quote 56s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $180.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $574.5KEvent: Guadalajara Open Akron, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar
50.5¢
Varvara Lepchenko
49.5¢
Nicole Melichar
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:38 trades$287.4K tracked21% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 335 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Varvara Lepchenko · $14.3K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$287.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNicole Melichar$32.0K@ 51¢·RN1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$195
tracked
$287.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Varvara Lepchenko · $14.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 335 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-19 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Varvara Lepchenko and Nicole Melichar in the Guadalajara Open Akron, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Varvara Lepchenko' if Varvara Lepchenko advances against Nicole Melichar. This market will resolve to 'Nicole Melichar' if Nicole Melichar advances against Varvara Lepchenko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Varvara Lepchenko@ 51.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Varvara Lepchenko@ 51.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Nicole Melichar@ 50.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nicole Melichar@ 51.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Varvara Lepchenko UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $99.5K → $100.2K · 21s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Varvara Lepchenko; negative values favor Nicole Melichar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVarvara Lepchenko · $0
6hNicole Melichar · $195
24hVarvara Lepchenko · $14.1K

Varvara Lepchenko price VWAP

Volume-weighted Varvara Lepchenko price. Nicole Melichar fills are converted to the complementary Varvara Lepchenko probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h49.8¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d49.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Varvara Lepchenko price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$172.8K
45¢
$114.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVarvara Lepchenko$31.0K@ 50.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYVarvara Lepchenko$30.0K@ 50.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYNicole Melichar$32.0K@ 51.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYNicole Melichar$30.0K@ 51.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYVarvara Lepchenko$21.0K@ 50.9¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYVarvara Lepchenko$25.2K@ 50.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYNicole Melichar$27.0K@ 51.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYNicole Melichar$10.9K@ 50.4¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Varvara Lepchenko$150.7K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·11 fills
RN1Nicole Melichar$136.5K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·11 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.