LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?

● quote 19s ago

Crypto→Politics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $43.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $667.4KEvent: $LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?

83.5¢

YES

16.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets20Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:258 trades$212.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $17.6K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$83.6K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$31.4K@ 63¢·uninformedfloww

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$95

+$154

tracked

$212.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: NO · $17.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 45 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-12-31 23:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of the LAPTOP token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of the LAPTOP token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token referenced in this market is LAPTOP, the token announced by Hunter Biden for launch on Base, as identified by the token's official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmed by Hunter Biden or his official representatives. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Parz1vaI5 linked markets · $101.4K gross

Pretovich2 linked markets · $80.1K gross

probability14 linked markets · $75.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPSELL NO@ 44.0¢15h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp6h INVALIDATED -10.0pp

Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $138 → $704 · 67s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $95

6hYES · $154

24hYES · $27.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current83.5¢

VWAP 24h56.0¢▲ above by 27.4pp

VWAP 7d48.4¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

$884

80¢

← now

$9.4K

75¢

$2.0K