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US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $285.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.4KEvent: US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina
44.5¢
Naomi Osaka
55.5¢
Elena Rybakina
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$35.3K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElena Rybakina$19.0K@ 57¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Elena Rybakina pressure: $9.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.1K
6h
−$10.5K
tracked
$35.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Elena Rybakina · $9.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Elena Rybakina or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Elena Rybakina. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Elena Rybakina@ 56.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Naomi Osaka; negative values favor Elena Rybakina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hElena Rybakina · $9.1K
6hElena Rybakina · $10.5K
24hElena Rybakina · $10.5K

Naomi Osaka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Naomi Osaka price. Elena Rybakina fills are converted to the complementary Naomi Osaka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h43.3¢▲ above by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d43.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Naomi Osaka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$35.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYElena Rybakina$19.0K@ 57.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—36 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Elena Rybakina$19.0K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.