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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $248.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $391.2KEvent: Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs
50.5¢
Canadiens payout
49.5¢
Maple Leafs payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maple Leafs · $7.6K net·14 wallets·$22.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCanadiens$30.0K@ 50¢·viboomchuu

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-29 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens".

•If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for September 29 at 7:00PM ET: If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens". If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Maple Leafs@ 66.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp1h INVALIDATED -34.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Canadiens@ 50.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Maple Leafs@ 51.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -24.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Maple Leafs@ 51.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -24.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Canadiens; negative values favor Maple Leafs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCanadiens · $12.0K
6hCanadiens · $54.5K
24hMaple Leafs · $7.4K

Canadiens price VWAP

Volume-weighted Canadiens price. Maple Leafs fills are converted to the complementary Canadiens probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h54.6¢▼ below by 4.1pp
VWAP 7d54.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Canadiens price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$9.0K
90¢
$13
85¢
$9.2K
80¢
$2.1K
75¢
$2.1K
70¢
$968
65¢
$2.2K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$130.0K
45¢
$7.9K
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$9.1K
30¢
$53
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCanadiens$13.2K@ 50.1¢
Mr.Ape0x26f8…3452
🐋—3 days ago
BUYCanadiens$30.0K@ 50.0¢
viboomchuu0x291d…1f97
🐋—3 days ago
BUYMaple Leafs$20.0K@ 50.0¢
chubbytoro0xe4a5…3cad
🐋—3 days ago
BUYMaple Leafs$20.0K@ 50.0¢
chubbytoro0xe4a5…3cad
🐋—3 days ago
BUYMaple Leafs$20.0K@ 50.0¢
chubbytoro0xe4a5…3cad
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

chubbytoroMaple Leafs$61.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·4 fills
viboomchuuCanadiens$30.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
Mr.ApeCanadiens$13.2K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.