Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?

● quote 36s ago

Crypto→Closes: about 23 hoursLiquidity: $21.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $177.5KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

10.5¢

YES

89.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:73 trades$61.2K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $5.8K net·2 wallets·$36.7K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$8.7K@ 55¢·0x06dc…4524

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$81

+$8.3K

tracked

$61.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $5.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
•Less than 23h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-09-01 04:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0xf705…3ca714 linked markets · $221.1K gross

olegs6 linked markets · $203.5K gross

0330330337 linked markets · $202.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $13.5K → $92 · 50s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $81

6hYES · $8.3K

24hNO · $17.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current10.5¢

VWAP 24h31.7¢▼ below by 21.2pp

VWAP 7d31.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

$17

60¢

$1.4K

55¢

$1.6K

50¢

$54

45¢

$18.8K

40¢

$5.0K

35¢

30¢

$8.5K

25¢

$2.8K

20¢

$6.8K

15¢

$5.6K

10¢

← now

$11.7K

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf705…3ca7No$17.5K

BUY VWAP 67.2¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.