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US Open, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Alexis Galarneau

UncategorizedSettlement: Alexis GalarneauLiquidity: $218.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $145.2KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Alexis Galarneau
0.0¢
Keegan Smith payout
100.0¢
Alexis Galarneau payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alexis Galarneau · $78.3K net·6 wallets(2🐋)·$83.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexis Galarneau$22.9K@ 94¢·0b1fe

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alexis Galarneau. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-31 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Keegan Smith and Alexis Galarneau in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Alexis Galarneau. This market will resolve to 'Alexis Galarneau' if Alexis Galarneau advances against Keegan Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Keegan Smith; negative values favor Alexis Galarneau. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexis Galarneau · $22.6K
6hAlexis Galarneau · $79.6K
24hAlexis Galarneau · $78.4K

Keegan Smith price VWAP

Volume-weighted Keegan Smith price. Alexis Galarneau fills are converted to the complementary Keegan Smith probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h6.6¢▼ below by 6.6pp
VWAP 7d6.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Keegan Smith price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$4.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$3.3K
5¢
$44.3K
0¢
← now
$31.6K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlexis Galarneau$14.0K@ 97.8¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—2 days ago
BUYAlexis Galarneau$22.9K@ 94.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—2 days ago
BUYAlexis Galarneau$13.7K@ 95.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—2 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyAlexis Galarneau$37.3K
BUY VWAP 96.7¢·6 fills
0b1feAlexis Galarneau$30.6K
BUY VWAP 94.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.