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Kingston 2: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Richard Mallory

● quote 16s ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $179.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $124.6KEvent: Kingston 2: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Richard Mallory
50.5¢
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
49.5¢
Richard Mallory
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:6 trades$37.4K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 336 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRichard Mallory$16.8K@ 42¢·Stavenson

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$37.1K
tracked
$37.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 336 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Gonzalez Fernandez and Richard Mallory in the Kingston 2, Jamaica, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mario Gonzalez Fernandez' if Mario Gonzalez Fernandez advances against Richard Mallory. This market will resolve to 'Richard Mallory' if Richard Mallory advances against Mario Gonzalez Fernandez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Richard Mallory@ 50.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mario Gonzalez Fernandez; negative values favor Richard Mallory. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMario Gonzalez Fernandez · $0
6hRichard Mallory · $37.1K
24hRichard Mallory · $37.1K

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mario Gonzalez Fernandez price. Richard Mallory fills are converted to the complementary Mario Gonzalez Fernandez probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h63.1¢▼ below by 12.6pp
VWAP 7d63.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mario Gonzalez Fernandez price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$12.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$16.8K
50¢
← now
$153
45¢
$8.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRichard Mallory$12.1K@ 19.2¢0xd8b4…7773🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYRichard Mallory$16.8K@ 42.0¢
Stavenson0xf5fe…e23d
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StavensonRichard Mallory$16.8K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0xd8b4…7773Richard Mallory$12.1K
BUY VWAP 19.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.