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Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Hubert Hurkacz

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $243.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $108.4KEvent: Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Hubert Hurkacz
2.5¢
Sebastian Baez payout
97.5¢
Hubert Hurkacz payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sebastian Baez · $2.4K net·3 wallets·$8.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHubert Hurkacz$11.8K@ 97¢·hd777

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Hubert Hurkacz in the Cancun, originally scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Hubert Hurkacz. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sebastian Baez; negative values favor Hubert Hurkacz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHubert Hurkacz · $16.0K
6hHubert Hurkacz · $12.7K
24hHubert Hurkacz · $14.0K

Sebastian Baez price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sebastian Baez price. Hubert Hurkacz fills are converted to the complementary Sebastian Baez probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.5¢
VWAP 24h26.2¢▼ below by 23.7pp
VWAP 7d26.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sebastian Baez price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.0K
60¢
$5.3K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$5.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$5.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$49
10¢
$10
5¢
$2.6K
0¢
← now
$14.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHubert Hurkacz$11.8K@ 96.9¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777Hubert Hurkacz$11.8K
BUY VWAP 96.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.