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Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe

UncategorizedSettlement: Frances TiafoeLiquidity: $810.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe
0.0¢
Brandon Nakashima payout
100.0¢
Frances Tiafoe payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:209 trades$361.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1287 min agoofficial metadata 1273 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Brandon Nakashima · $36.8K net·8 wallets(2🐋)·$84.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrances Tiafoe$50.0K@ 50¢·AV23IUa

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Frances Tiafoe. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-29 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Brandon Nakashima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Frances Tiafoe23h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 50.0¢24h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 50.0¢24h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 49.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Frances Tiafoe DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $82.2K → $75.8K · 29s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Brandon Nakashima; negative values favor Frances Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBrandon Nakashima · $1.1K
6hFrances Tiafoe · $36.0K
24hFrances Tiafoe · $5.8K

Brandon Nakashima price VWAP

Volume-weighted Brandon Nakashima price. Frances Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Brandon Nakashima probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h40.0¢▼ below by 40.0pp
VWAP 7d40.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Brandon Nakashima price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$143
55¢
$49.2K
50¢
$176.3K
45¢
$50.0K
40¢
$9.1K
35¢
$30.7K
30¢
$60.3K
25¢
$12.9K
20¢
$4.4K
15¢
$14
10¢
$2.8K
5¢
$21.3K
0¢
← now
$45.7K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrances Tiafoe$14.9K@ 99.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 22 hours ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$16.0K@ 69.0¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima$17.4K@ 58.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$20.0K@ 67.0¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$50.0K@ 50.4¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$11.0K@ 49.0¢
kamloic0x5901…63a2
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$13.0K@ 49.4¢
alaskabaked0xaa77…15a5
🐋—1 day ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima$13.0K@ 52.0¢
ChallengerSpecialist0x5ba6…0f07
🐋—1 day ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$15.1K@ 49.0¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—1 day ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima$23.0K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaFrances Tiafoe$50.0K
BUY VWAP 50.4¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Brandon Nakashima$24.1K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
hurricanFrances Tiafoe$20.0K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
tennischampBrandon Nakashima$17.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
afrazFrances Tiafoe$15.1K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
hd777Frances Tiafoe$14.9K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
alaskabakedFrances Tiafoe$13.0K
BUY VWAP 49.4¢·1 fill
ChallengerSpecialistBrandon Nakashima$13.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0xa0f2…1848Frances Tiafoe$11.5K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·10 fills
0x2c33…0563Brandon Nakashima$11.5K
BUY VWAP 34.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.