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Sion: Lorenzo Giustino vs Benjamin Hassan

● quote 33s ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $253.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $701.2KEvent: Sion: Lorenzo Giustino vs Benjamin Hassan
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection48Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 92%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$312.5K tracked21% 🐋source coverage 69%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 43s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$28.9K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$31.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$33.6K@ 79¢·007theone1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$150.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$150.8K
6h
−$141.8K
tracked
$312.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$28.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 92% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -80.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-28 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Giustino and Benjamin Hassan in the Sion, originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Giustino' if Lorenzo Giustino advances against Benjamin Hassan. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Hassan' if Benjamin Hassan advances against Lorenzo Giustino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Giustino@ 81.0¢51m ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $126 → $101 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$150.8K
6h−$141.8K
24h−$143.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h43.2¢▼ below by 43.1pp
VWAP 7d43.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$9.7K
75¢
$17.7K
70¢
$19.3K
65¢
$37.2K
60¢
$4.3K
55¢
$28.3K
50¢
$37.8K
45¢
$5.2K
40¢
$9.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$37.7K
20¢
$76.9K
15¢
$6.5K
10¢
$0
5¢
$2.4K
0¢
← now
$19.7K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$33.6K@ 79.4¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$11.8K@ 78.5¢0xe3e4…8087🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$11.1K@ 70.5¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$27.6K@ 77.5¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$19.6K@ 72.7¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYLorenzo Giustino (YES)$29.1K@ 53.9¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$23.8K@ 34.1¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$12.3K@ 32.1¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYBenjamin Hassan (NO)$14.9K@ 28.8¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—19 minutes ago
SELLLorenzo Giustino (YES)$15.0K@ 79.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Giustino (YES)$15.0K@ 59.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

007theone1Benjamin Hassan$123.7K
BUY VWAP 69.4¢·12 fills
HVABBenjamin Hassan$53.7K
BUY VWAP 32.4¢·4 fills
ferrariChampions2026Lorenzo Giustino$29.1K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Lorenzo Giustino$15.0K
BUY VWAP 59.3¢·1 fill
0xe3e4…8087Benjamin Hassan$11.8K
BUY VWAP 78.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.