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Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe

UncategorizedSettlement: Frances TiafoeLiquidity: $291.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
0.0¢
Lorenzo Musetti payout
100.0¢
Frances Tiafoe payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Frances Tiafoe · $24.1K net·13 wallets·$69.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrances Tiafoe$39.3K@ 100¢·backback

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Frances Tiafoe. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-28 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Lorenzo Musetti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 51.0¢2d ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 50.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Musetti; negative values favor Frances Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrances Tiafoe · $13.3K
6hFrances Tiafoe · $71.0K
24hFrances Tiafoe · $69.1K

Lorenzo Musetti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Musetti price. Frances Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Musetti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h25.8¢▼ below by 25.8pp
VWAP 7d26.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Musetti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$11.7K
55¢
$737
50¢
$106.1K
45¢
$59.2K
40¢
$46.0K
35¢
$27
30¢
$5.5K
25¢
$30.6K
20¢
$2.2K
15¢
$1.9K
10¢
$42.1K
5¢
$63.1K
0¢
← now
$133.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFrances Tiafoe$14.0K@ 99.9¢
alaskabaked0xaa77…15a5
🐋—2 days ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$26.2K@ 99.9¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—2 days ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$39.3K@ 99.8¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—2 days ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$30.0K@ 92.0¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋—2 days ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$22.7K@ 86.5¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—2 days ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$13.9K@ 74.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—2 days ago
SELLFrances Tiafoe$10.6K@ 58.0¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—2 days ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$11.3K@ 60.0¢
Kayodexx0x3c51…ee64
🐋—2 days ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$13.5K@ 50.6¢
Teslaleps0x21fd…f263
🐋—2 days ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$21.9K@ 50.0¢
kamloic0x5901…63a2
🐋—2 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

backbackFrances Tiafoe$39.3K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill
afrazFrances Tiafoe$32.0K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·2 fills
kaheFrances Tiafoe$30.0K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·1 fill
swisstonyFrances Tiafoe$23.5K
BUY VWAP 91.3¢·13 fills
kamloicLorenzo Musetti$21.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
one8tyfiveFrances Tiafoe$13.9K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
TeslalepsLorenzo Musetti$13.5K
BUY VWAP 50.6¢·1 fill
0xa0f2…1848Frances Tiafoe$12.1K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·12 fills
hd777Frances Tiafoe$11.8K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·3 fills
KayodexxLorenzo Musetti$11.3K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.