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Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $433.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.7MEvent: Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima
67.5¢
YES
32.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:250 trades$1.1M tracked7% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $263.5K·11 wallets(7🐋)·$790.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBrandon Nakashima (NO)$426.0K@ 39¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$172.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$172.8K
6h
−$142.6K
tracked
$1.1M

11 verified profitable wallets: −$263.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 56

Since latest counter flow: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 24.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-28 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Brandon Nakashima in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

COUNTER FLOWBUY YES@ 44.0¢27m ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Brandon Nakashima@ 56.0¢27m ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Brandon Nakashima@ 41.0¢27m ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Brandon Nakashima@ 38.0¢57m ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $59.3K → $94 · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$172.8K
6h−$142.6K
24h−$140.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.5¢
VWAP 24h61.5¢▲ above by 6.0pp
VWAP 7d61.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10.1K
70¢
$50.6K
65¢
← now
$137.6K
60¢
$809.3K
55¢
$19.6K
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$30.8K
40¢
$74.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTaylor Fritz (YES)$10.0K@ 66.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—6 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$32.6K@ 64.0¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$28.9K@ 64.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$21.0K@ 64.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$26.0K@ 64.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—28 minutes ago
SELLTaylor Fritz (YES)$13.0K@ 64.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$10.0K@ 45.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—36 minutes ago
SELLBrandon Nakashima (NO)$22.3K@ 55.1¢0x5f65…2036🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$12.5K@ 69.0¢
sbimbg0xf519…906b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$10.0K@ 72.0¢0xca64…4f43🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima (NO)$13.0K@ 30.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$13.7K@ 68.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$23.0K@ 64.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$11.1K@ 64.0¢
kamloic0x5901…63a2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima (NO)$426.0K@ 38.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$13.5K@ 64.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBrandon Nakashima (NO)$20.0K@ 37.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz (YES)$47.9K@ 63.9¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekBrandon Nakashima$451.6K
BUY VWAP 38.8¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Taylor Fritz$75.9K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·3 fills
swisstonyTaylor Fritz$50.7K
BUY VWAP 65.2¢·16 fills
AV23IUaTaylor Fritz$47.9K
BUY VWAP 63.9¢·1 fill
Parz1vaITaylor Fritz$32.6K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Brandon Nakashima$30.1K
BUY VWAP 31.3¢·5 fills
tennischampTaylor Fritz$27.2K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·2 fills
0b1feTaylor Fritz$23.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Brandon Nakashima$20.0K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardTaylor Fritz$19.3K
BUY VWAP 64.2¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.