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Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage

● quote 15s ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $322.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $113.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage
0.1¢
ex-RUBY
100.0¢
Black Phoenix
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:38 trades$16.1K trackedsource coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBlack Phoenix$2.5K@ 100¢·0x051c…ca3f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

ex-RUBY pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
+$6.0K
tracked
$16.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: ex-RUBY · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from ex-RUBY or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 02:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "ex-RUBY" if ex-RUBY win the match against Black Phoenix.

•This market will resolve to "Black Phoenix" if Black Phoenix win the match against ex-RUBY.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between ex-RUBY and Black Phoenix in the Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "ex-RUBY" if ex-RUBY win the match against Black Phoenix. This market will resolve to "Black Phoenix" if Black Phoenix win the match against ex-RUBY. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: ex-RUBY DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $134 → $139 · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor ex-RUBY; negative values favor Black Phoenix. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hex-RUBY · $1.1K
6hex-RUBY · $6.0K
24hex-RUBY · $6.0K

ex-RUBY price VWAP

Volume-weighted ex-RUBY price. Black Phoenix fills are converted to the complementary ex-RUBY probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h28.6¢▼ below by 28.5pp
VWAP 7d28.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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ex-RUBY price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$135
60¢
$3
55¢
$3
50¢
$7.6K
45¢
$203
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$121
0¢
← now
$6.8K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity