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Quebec City: Rei Sakamoto vs Luca Van Assche

● quote 21 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $500.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $360.6KEvent: Quebec City: Rei Sakamoto vs Luca Van Assche
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:113 trades$129.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.7K·2 wallets·$4.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLuca Van Assche (NO)$16.3K@ 77¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$23.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$23.5K
6h
+$18.1K
tracked
$129.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$4.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +60.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 21 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 60.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rei Sakamoto and Luca Van Assche in the Quebec City, originally scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Luca Van Assche. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Rei Sakamoto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Luca Van Assche@ 60.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $8.9K → $180 · 15s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$23.5K
6h+$18.1K
24h+$10.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h24.3¢▼ below by 23.3pp
VWAP 7d24.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$4
75¢
$23
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$168
60¢
$1.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$51
45¢
$10.8K
40¢
$7.0K
35¢
$37.4K
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$2.3K
20¢
$22.3K
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
$25
5¢
$113
0¢
← now
$42.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLLuca Van Assche (NO)$11.7K@ 99.9¢0x790e…55d6🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLLuca Van Assche (NO)$16.3K@ 77.2¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLuca Van Assche (NO)$13.0K@ 61.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Luca Van Assche$13.0K
BUY VWAP 61.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.