LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs

● quote 12 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $180.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $670.1KEvent: LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
24.0¢
YES
76.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:226 trades$213.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $40.7K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$40.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDN SOOPers (NO)$13.0K@ 50¢·0xf559…f462

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$13.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.4K
6h
−$11.5K
tracked
$213.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$40.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 73% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 12 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • Executable BUY price moved 24.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Nongshim Red Force and DN SOOPers in the KeSPA Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against DN SOOPers. This market will resolve to "DN SOOPers" if DN SOOPers win the match against Nongshim Red Force. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 18, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111152 linked markets · $67.2K gross
0x8a86…49983 linked markets · $34.0K gross
0xb4c8…8f5a3 linked markets · $21.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY DN SOOPers@ 53.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $18$27 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$13.4K
6h$11.5K
24h$7.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current24.0¢
VWAP 24h47.1¢▼ below by 23.1pp
VWAP 7d47.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.6K
50¢
$70.7K
45¢
$101.4K
40¢
$7.0K
35¢
$25.0K
30¢
$7.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$10.5K@ 35.0¢0x8a86…4998🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYDN SOOPers (NO)$13.0K@ 50.1¢0xf559…f462🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDN SOOPers (NO)$10.0K@ 50.0¢0x1660…5598🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYDN SOOPers (NO)$10.4K@ 52.0¢0xcf60…a6f5🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563DN SOOPers$27.7K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·8 fills
0x1660…5598DN SOOPers$13.5K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462DN SOOPers$13.0K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·1 fill
0x8a86…4998Nongshim Red Force$10.5K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill
0xcf60…a6f5DN SOOPers$10.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.