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Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-18?

UncategorizedSettlement: YESLiquidity: $135.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $185.4KEvent: 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Bayern Munich
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $1.6K net·4 wallets·$5.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$4.7K@ 100¢·alpheclabs

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-18 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.flashscore.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Bayern Munich wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 18, 2026 If Bayern Munich wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RN12 linked markets · $13.2K gross
0x2cc8…262b2 linked markets · $11.0K gross
ForMyFamily12 linked markets · $9.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $4
6hNO · $16.8K
24hNO · $13.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h84.2¢▲ above by 15.8pp
VWAP 7d84.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$27.7K
90¢
$535
85¢
$3.2K
80¢
$4.9K
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$2.0K
65¢
$23
60¢
$11.8K
55¢
$2.3K
50¢
$77
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity