LoL: Bulldog Esports vs LEO (BO3) - NLC Regular Season

● quote 24 min ago
SportsCloses: about 13 hoursLiquidity: $13.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $132.8KEvent: LoL: Bulldog Esports vs LEO (BO3) - NLC Regular Season
54.0¢
YES
46.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:43 trades$44.9K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 26 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBulldog Esports (YES)$2.6K@ 81¢·0x0e47…96c6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$207
6h
−$208
tracked
$44.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 24 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 78 minutes old.
  • Less than 13h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 5 match between Bulldog Esports and LEO in the NLC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Bulldog Esports" if Bulldog Esports win the match against LEO. This market will resolve to "LEO" if LEO win the match against Bulldog Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Bulldog Esports@ 63.0¢8h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $8$47 · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$207
6h$208
24h+$162

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.0¢
VWAP 24h60.6¢▼ below by 6.6pp
VWAP 7d60.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$13
80¢
$7.3K
75¢
$2.6K
70¢
$4.5K
65¢
$6.5K
60¢
$4.0K
55¢
$9.3K
50¢
← now
$1.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$2.4K
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$3.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x0e47…96c6Bulldog Esports$11.5K
BUY VWAP 55.2¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.