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UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: MarQuel MederosLiquidity: $529.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $503.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Main Card)
0.0¢
Mason Jones payout
100.0¢
MarQuel Mederos payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mason Jones · $4.2K net·9 wallets·$8.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarQuel Mederos$15.4K@ 24¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome MarQuel Mederos. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-23 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Mason Jones" if Mason Jones is officially declared the winner of the fight against MarQuel Mederos at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026.

•It will resolve to "MarQuel Mederos" if MarQuel Mederos is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Mason Jones" if Mason Jones is officially declared the winner of the fight against MarQuel Mederos at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "MarQuel Mederos" if MarQuel Mederos is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY MarQuel Mederos@ 24.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY MarQuel Mederos@ 24.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mason Jones; negative values favor MarQuel Mederos. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMason Jones · $5.0K
6hMarQuel Mederos · $31.4K
24hMarQuel Mederos · $15.7K

Mason Jones price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mason Jones price. MarQuel Mederos fills are converted to the complementary Mason Jones probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h72.2¢▼ below by 72.2pp
VWAP 7d72.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mason Jones price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$133.4K
70¢
$6.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7.4K

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarQuel Mederos$12.1K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—2 days ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos$11.8K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—2 days ago
BUYMason Jones$11.8K@ 77.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—2 days ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos$10.9K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—2 days ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos$10.9K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—2 days ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos$15.4K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—2 days ago
BUYMason Jones$11.8K@ 77.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketMarQuel Mederos$71.1K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·7 fills
rabbitfoot1Mason Jones$20.3K
BUY VWAP 76.6¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafMason Jones$15.2K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.