Prague: Jakub Paul vs Rudolf Molleker

● quote 24 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $206.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $108.6KEvent: Prague: Jakub Paul vs Rudolf Molleker
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 92%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$65.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRudolf Molleker (NO)$11.7K@ 97¢·swisstony

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.5K
6h
−$2.5K
tracked
$65.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$13.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 92% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 24 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 29 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Paul and Rudolf Molleker in the Prague, Czech Republic, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Paul' if Jakub Paul advances against Rudolf Molleker. This market will resolve to 'Rudolf Molleker' if Rudolf Molleker advances against Jakub Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.5K
6h$2.5K
24h$2.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h9.7¢▼ below by 9.7pp
VWAP 7d9.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.4K
40¢
$5.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$8.7K
10¢
$1.8K
5¢
$8.3K
0¢
← now
$38.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYRudolf Molleker (NO)$11.7K@ 97.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyRudolf Molleker$13.2K
BUY VWAP 96.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.