Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Elimination Round

● quote 144 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $191.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $284.9KEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Elimination Round
5.0¢
YES
95.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority40Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%
24h sample:112 trades$71.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 153 min agoofficial metadata 145 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora (YES)$10.0K@ 35¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.2K
6h
+$6.3K
tracked
$71.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 40

Since latest large flow: +30.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 144 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 153 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 145 minutes old.
  • Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Aurora and BoomBoys in the The International Elimination Round, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against BoomBoys. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $178.4K gross
0x9100…7ade2 linked markets · $82.0K gross
0xedfc…b7b12 linked markets · $37.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY BoomBoys2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY BoomBoys@ 66.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $8.4K$985 · 25s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.2K
6h+$6.3K
24h+$16.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.0¢
VWAP 24h40.5¢▼ below by 35.5pp
VWAP 7d40.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$50
65¢
$123
60¢
$2.0K
55¢
$16.5K
50¢
$34
45¢
$41
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$34.4K
30¢
$10.9K
25¢
$6.3K
20¢
$258
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAurora (YES)$10.0K@ 35.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winner
9.5¢$941.7Kpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xc69b…2076BoomBoys$22.2K
BUY VWAP 64.7¢·10 fills
0xe16d…5e30Aurora$13.4K
BUY VWAP 34.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.