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Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $277.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $314.8KEvent: Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
30.5¢
YES
69.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$149.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$21.5K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$45.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiami Marlins (NO)$52.4K@ 59¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.7K
6h
−$63.7K
tracked
$149.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$21.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 55

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-28 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 21 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $31.3K gross
1winstreak12 linked markets · $121 gross
0x6b23…04a32 linked markets · $12 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 59.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Washington Nationals@ 42.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $19 → $728 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$4.7K
6h−$63.7K
24h−$51.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.5¢
VWAP 24h43.7¢▼ below by 13.2pp
VWAP 7d43.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$18
55¢
$15.5K
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.2K
40¢
$113.5K
35¢
$13.0K
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$2.1K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins (NO)$52.4K@ 59.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYWashington Nationals (YES)$25.2K@ 42.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafMiami Marlins$57.1K
BUY VWAP 57.1¢·2 fills
SDTradingWashington Nationals$25.2K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0xe6e4…ce20Miami Marlins$11.7K
BUY VWAP 60.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.