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Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson

UncategorizedSettlement: YESLiquidity: $325.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $298.9KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$37.1K·5 wallets·$40.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$24.6K@ 89¢·hurrican

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-23 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Talia Gibson in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Talia Gibson. This market will resolve to 'Talia Gibson' if Talia Gibson advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aryna Sabalenka@ 89.0¢5d ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.2pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$10.5K
6h+$71.7K
24h+$70.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h93.6¢▲ above by 6.4pp
VWAP 7d93.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$60.4K
90¢
$18.5K
85¢
$42.3K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAryna Sabalenka (YES)$10.3K@ 99.9¢
TrajanCapital0x6f2e…9d0b
🐋—5 days ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$11.1K@ 95.4¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—5 days ago
BUYAryna Sabalenka (YES)$24.6K@ 89.0¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—5 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hurricanAryna Sabalenka$24.6K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill
swisstonyAryna Sabalenka$20.8K
BUY VWAP 95.7¢·7 fills
tennischampAryna Sabalenka$12.4K
BUY VWAP 86.8¢·2 fills
0b1feAryna Sabalenka$11.1K
BUY VWAP 95.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.