Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

● quote just now

UncategorizedCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $32.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.4KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets August 18 - August 25, 2026?

4.7¢

YES

95.3¢

0.4¢

Spread

anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%

24h sample:32 trades$1.7K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$1.5K@ 90¢·0x2a79…e2af

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$1

+$70

tracked

$1.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-25 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 18 12:00 PM ET to August 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Boss74 linked markets · $56.9K gross

NameWater3 linked markets · $14.9K gross

ElonSpam2 linked markets · $11.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$1

6h+$70

24h−$1.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current4.7¢

VWAP 24h9.4¢▼ below by 4.7pp

VWAP 7d9.4¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

$1.5K

5¢

$141

0¢

← now

$88

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.