Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 44 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 23 minutesLiquidity: $669.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.5MEvent: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:649 trades$605.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$39.1K·4 wallets(3🐋)·$101.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLGD Gaming (YES)$31.0K@ 100¢·gxxyy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$110.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$110.8K
6h
−$195.6K
tracked
$605.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$39.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: -51.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 44 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 51 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 48 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between LGD Gaming and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against LGD Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $98.2K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $76.8K gross
gxxyy3 linked markets · $54.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Xtreme Gaming@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -37.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Xtreme Gaming@ 42.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -27.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Xtreme Gaming@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY LGD Gaming@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $184$1.6K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$110.8K
6h$195.6K
24h$206.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h73.0¢▲ above by 26.9pp
VWAP 7d73.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$224.3K
90¢
$14.5K
85¢
$12.0K
80¢
$64.0K
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$2.5K
65¢
$6.6K
60¢
$21.2K
55¢
$9.2K
50¢
$44.8K
45¢
$152.6K
40¢
$45.8K
35¢
$4.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$111
20¢
$2.6K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLLGD Gaming (YES)$10.8K@ 99.9¢0xde24…4ded🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLLGD Gaming (YES)$17.3K@ 99.9¢0x53fb…7c30🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLLGD Gaming (YES)$31.0K@ 99.9¢
gxxyy0x4aec…4ce9
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (YES)$16.7K@ 99.9¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (YES)$22.6K@ 80.0¢
S-Works0xee00…cea1
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (YES)$24.0K@ 80.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$26.5K@ 51.9¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (YES)$24.0K@ 48.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$30.0K@ 52.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Xtreme Gaming$47.0K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·7 fills
0x2c33…0563Xtreme Gaming$31.1K
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563LGD Gaming$29.5K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·4 fills
iDARKenjoyerLGD Gaming$24.0K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
S-WorksLGD Gaming$22.6K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
Sisyphus.LGD Gaming$16.7K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x1896…a7d6Xtreme Gaming$10.9K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.