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San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

Sports→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $32.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $241.3KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $19.5K·3 wallets·$19.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$57.9K@ 53¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-14 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for August 14 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $25.4K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $3.3K gross
0x0d2d…7ff52 linked markets · $1.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢7d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +6.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 48.0¢7d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$46
6h−$20.6K
24h−$42.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h44.2¢▲ above by 55.8pp
VWAP 7d44.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$5
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$100.6K
40¢
$1.8K
35¢
$2
30¢
$17.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$57.9K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—7 days ago
BUYOver (YES)$21.6K@ 46.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—7 days ago
BUYOver (YES)$13.7K@ 46.0¢
dv-pm0x56ac…d77e
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x04e6…3914Under$17.7K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.