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Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18?

Sports→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $639.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $990.8KEvent: Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $35.4K net·6 wallets·$51.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$48.0K@ 48¢·3edmond.dantes

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-18 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Fenerbahçe SK wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 18, 2026 If Fenerbahçe SK wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony3 linked markets · $74.0K gross
cnyek2 linked markets · $67.1K gross
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $34.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 42.5¢5d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY YES5d ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY YES@ 49.0¢5d ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -31.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 48.0¢5d ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -30.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $18.1K
6hYES · $114.5K
24hYES · $140.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h45.2¢▼ below by 45.2pp
VWAP 7d45.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$25.4K
45¢
$337.1K
40¢
$6.3K
35¢
$4.7K
30¢
$7.0K
25¢
$5.1K
20¢
$8.6K
15¢
$7.7K
10¢
$2.7K
5¢
$1.5K
0¢
← now
$3.9K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.7K@ 48.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$16.0K@ 48.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$26.7K@ 48.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$37.3K@ 48.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$26.7K@ 48.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$26.7K@ 48.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$48.0K@ 48.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$19.5K@ 54.6¢
cnyek0x6501…1220
🐋—5 days ago
SELLYES$14.7K@ 48.0¢
cnyek0x6501…1220
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$13.4K@ 48.5¢
cnyek0x6501…1220
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

3edmond.dantesYes$214.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·10 fills
swisstonyNo$32.4K
BUY VWAP 68.1¢·20 fills
0x547f…2937No$20.1K
BUY VWAP 50.6¢·5 fills
cnyekYes$19.7K
BUY VWAP 48.8¢·2 fills
cnyekNo$19.5K
BUY VWAP 54.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.