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Cincinnati Open: Valentin Royer vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $429.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $339.7KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Valentin Royer vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection43Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$136.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $19.1K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$24.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYStefanos Tsitsipas (NO)$23.5K@ 89¢·0x8c7d…83ed

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$51.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$51.7K
6h
−$80.3K
tracked
$136.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$19.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +12.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 12.3pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Royer and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Royer' if Valentin Royer advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Valentin Royer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas@ 87.7¢10m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas29m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas@ 90.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.9pp · near-book depth $62.4K → $1.9K · 10s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$51.7K
6h−$80.3K
24h−$80.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h9.7¢▼ below by 9.7pp
VWAP 7d9.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1
30¢
$1.9K
25¢
$10.5K
20¢
$264
15¢
$16
10¢
$49.6K
5¢
$21.4K
0¢
← now
$52.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas (NO)$15.7K@ 98.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas (NO)$23.5K@ 89.0¢0x8c7d…83ed🐋—about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8c7d…83edStefanos Tsitsipas$23.5K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill
swisstonyStefanos Tsitsipas$22.0K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.