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Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic

UncategorizedSettlement: Daniel Merida AguilarLiquidity: $380.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $374.1KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic
100.0¢
Daniel Merida Aguilar payout
0.0¢
Marin Cilic payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniel Merida Aguilar$12.3K@ 100¢·MMzz398

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Daniel Merida Aguilar. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Marin Cilic in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Marin Cilic. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniel Merida Aguilar; negative values favor Marin Cilic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarin Cilic · $33.0K
6hMarin Cilic · $26.2K
24hMarin Cilic · $26.2K

Daniel Merida Aguilar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniel Merida Aguilar price. Marin Cilic fills are converted to the complementary Daniel Merida Aguilar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.4¢▲ above by 30.6pp
VWAP 7d69.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniel Merida Aguilar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$44.5K
90¢
$10.9K
85¢
$11.9K
80¢
$1
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$619
60¢
$6.3K
55¢
$48.7K
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$176
40¢
$52
35¢
$5.7K
30¢
$21.4K
25¢
$2.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaniel Merida Aguilar$12.3K@ 99.9¢
MMzz3980x2978…b511
🐋—11 days ago
SELLDaniel Merida Aguilar$10.1K@ 99.9¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—11 days ago