Cincinnati Open: Corentin Moutet vs Hubert Hurkacz

● quote 41 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $246.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $138.7KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Corentin Moutet vs Hubert Hurkacz
49.5¢
YES
50.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%
24h sample:31 trades$31.6K trackedsource coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 98 min agoofficial metadata 45 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCorentin Moutet (YES)$9.4K@ 33¢·0x3e85…788b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$6.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.0K
6h
+$20.4K
tracked
$31.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 41 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 98 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 45 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Corentin Moutet and Hubert Hurkacz in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Corentin Moutet' if Corentin Moutet advances against Hubert Hurkacz. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Corentin Moutet. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$6.0K
6h+$20.4K
24h+$20.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h42.6¢▲ above by 6.9pp
VWAP 7d42.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$8.1K
45¢
← now
$10.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$2.1K
30¢
$10.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3e85…788bCorentin Moutet$11.5K
BUY VWAP 33.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.