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Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova

● quote 27 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $384.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $389.9KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection44Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$189.2K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata 26 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$16.0K·4 wallets·$16.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$22.6K@ 99¢·HVAB

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$84.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$84.2K
6h
+$124.2K
tracked
$189.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$16.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -72.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 27 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 64 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Bejlek and Karolina Pliskova in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if Sara Bejlek advances against Karolina Pliskova. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Pliskova' if Karolina Pliskova advances against Sara Bejlek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Sara Bejlek2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Sara Bejlek@ 72.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$84.2K
6h+$124.2K
24h+$131.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h80.5¢▲ above by 19.4pp
VWAP 7d80.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$63.0K
90¢
$7.1K
85¢
$34.0K
80¢
$22.9K
75¢
$2.5K
70¢
$2
65¢
$19.3K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$40.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$22.6K@ 99.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$11.3K@ 97.9¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$11.7K@ 98.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$10.2K@ 85.0¢0x6485…a265🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$16.6K@ 85.0¢0x447d…5eea🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSara Bejlek (YES)$19.3K@ 68.0¢0x04e6…3914🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777Sara Bejlek$23.0K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·2 fills
HVABSara Bejlek$22.6K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
0x04e6…3914Sara Bejlek$19.3K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill
0x447d…5eeaSara Bejlek$16.6K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill
0x1a95…3a16Sara Bejlek$13.0K
BUY VWAP 86.2¢·4 fills
0x6485…a265Sara Bejlek$10.2K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.