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National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Ben Shelton

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $421.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $235.7KEvent: National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Ben Shelton
34.5¢
YES
65.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 92%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$160.8K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 68%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $34.1K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$63.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLearner Tien (YES)$52.9K@ 34¢·highnetworth

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$26.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$26.9K
6h
+$28.8K
tracked
$160.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$34.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 92% · priority 61

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Ben Shelton in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 7:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Ben Shelton. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ben Shelton@ 67.0¢49m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Learner Tien@ 34.0¢49m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$26.9K
6h+$28.8K
24h+$26.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h33.6¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d33.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.9K
30¢
← now
$158.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLearner Tien (YES)$52.9K@ 34.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYLearner Tien (YES)$14.9K@ 33.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBen Shelton (NO)$46.6K@ 67.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLearner Tien (YES)$20.4K@ 34.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

highnetworthLearner Tien$52.9K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill
AV23IUaBen Shelton$46.6K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
Supremeleader75Learner Tien$20.4K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Learner Tien$14.9K
BUY VWAP 33.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.