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Astana: Fajing Sun vs Semen Pankin

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $203.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $365.2KEvent: Astana: Fajing Sun vs Semen Pankin
85.5¢
YES
14.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:191 trades$138.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$26.4K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$32.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFajing Sun (YES)$30.0K@ 62¢·Marcoli

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$9.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.8K
6h
+$60.9K
tracked
$138.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$26.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 64

Since latest large flow: +48.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 48.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 07:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Fajing Sun and Semen Pankin in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fajing Sun' if Fajing Sun advances against Semen Pankin. This market will resolve to 'Semen Pankin' if Semen Pankin advances against Fajing Sun. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Fajing Sun47m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Fajing Sun@ 38.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +45.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Fajing Sun2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Fajing Sun2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $21.6K → $1.6K · 29s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$9.8K
6h+$60.9K
24h+$60.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current85.5¢
VWAP 24h56.9¢▲ above by 28.6pp
VWAP 7d56.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.8K
85¢
← now
$1.5K
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
$4.5K
70¢
$7.6K
65¢
$23.6K
60¢
$36.0K
55¢
$4.1K
50¢
$29.7K
45¢
$12.0K
40¢
$2.1K
35¢
$381
30¢
$7.5K
25¢
$302
20¢
$516
15¢
$2.2K
10¢
$3.4K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFajing Sun (YES)$30.0K@ 62.4¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFajing Sun (YES)$18.8K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFajing Sun (YES)$11.2K@ 67.0¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MarcoliFajing Sun$41.2K
BUY VWAP 63.6¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Fajing Sun$18.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
RN1Fajing Sun$10.7K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.