Todi: Filippo Romano vs Juan Bautista Torres

● quote 51 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $412.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $310.4KEvent: Todi: Filippo Romano vs Juan Bautista Torres
4.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets57Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:182 trades$107.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.7K·2 wallets·$2.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Bautista Torres (NO)$12.4K@ 96¢·0x9e3e…f882

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$8.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.3K
6h
+$6.4K
tracked
$107.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 51 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Filippo Romano and Juan Bautista Torres in the Todi, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Romano' if Filippo Romano advances against Juan Bautista Torres. This market will resolve to 'Juan Bautista Torres' if Juan Bautista Torres advances against Filippo Romano. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $49.2K$46.4K · 33s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$8.3K
6h+$6.4K
24h+$8.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.0¢
VWAP 24h24.6¢▼ below by 20.6pp
VWAP 7d24.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$31
70¢
$6.5K
65¢
$81
60¢
$6.1K
55¢
$1.5K
50¢
$6.0K
45¢
$13.1K
40¢
$3.2K
35¢
$1.9K
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$348
20¢
$18.0K
15¢
$349
10¢
$1.1K
5¢
$3.5K
0¢
← now
$43.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLJuan Bautista Torres (NO)$10.3K@ 99.9¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYJuan Bautista Torres (NO)$10.0K@ 97.5¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYJuan Bautista Torres (NO)$12.4K@ 95.6¢0x9e3e…f882🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYJuan Bautista Torres (NO)$10.0K@ 52.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x9e3e…f882Juan Bautista Torres$15.0K
BUY VWAP 95.1¢·5 fills
0x0c4c…d70dJuan Bautista Torres$10.0K
BUY VWAP 97.5¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Juan Bautista Torres$10.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.