Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Darwin Blanch

● quote 4 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $371.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $120.5KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Darwin Blanch
62.5¢
YES
37.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$51.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$35.3K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$35.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAleksandar Vukic (YES)$24.6K@ 60¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$239
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$51.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$35.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Observed tape is 15 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Vukic and Darwin Blanch in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Vukic' if Aleksandar Vukic advances against Darwin Blanch. This market will resolve to 'Darwin Blanch' if Darwin Blanch advances against Aleksandar Vukic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aleksandar Vukic@ 60.0¢15h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$239
6h+$1.5K
24h+$34.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h60.2¢▲ above by 2.3pp
VWAP 7d60.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$45.1K
55¢
$6.7K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAleksandar Vukic (YES)$24.6K@ 60.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 15 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaAleksandar Vukic$32.5K
BUY VWAP 59.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.