Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?

● quote 30 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: —Liquidity: $63.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $86.1KEvent: EWC 2026 CS2: Winner
23.0¢
YES
77.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$32.8K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 33 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $29.8K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$29.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$16.7K@ 83¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$6.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.6K
6h
−$17.1K
tracked
$32.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$29.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 30 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 33 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
Unavailable
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Counter-Strike 2 tournament at the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC 2026), currently scheduled for August 12 – August 23, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the Esports World Cup; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
StasPanda2 linked markets · $58.2K gross
0x8f69…7df12 linked markets · $21.3K gross
Bigggggggg2 linked markets · $9.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 85.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $22 → $25.1K · 43s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$6.6K
6h−$17.1K
24h−$17.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current23.0¢
VWAP 24h17.1¢▲ above by 5.9pp
VWAP 7d16.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$32.9K
10¢
$6.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$16.7K@ 83.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Team Spirit Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
17.5¢$18.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaNo$25.0K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.